|
Social Research Laboratory, PO Box 15301, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 (928) 523-1515
Thursday, October 14, 2004 |
For More Information:
Fred Solop, Political Scientist
Kristi Hagen, Acting Director
(928) 523-1515
Sheila Morago, Executive Director
Arizona Indian Gaming Association
(480) 452-7648
|
ARIZONA VOTERS UNSETTLED OVER PROPOSITION 200
A large number of likely voters in Arizona remain undecided as to how they will vote on
Proposition 200, also known as "Protect Arizona Now," according to recent polling by the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University. Twenty-nine percent of likely voters have yet to decide how they will vote on this proposition, and 26 percent of people who support or oppose Proposition 200 (18% of all voters) say they might change their mind before Election Day. Forty-two percent of likely voters say they will vote for Proposition 200 and 29 percent say they will vote against it, but with so many uncommitted voters, either position may prevail.
The survey was conducted between October 8 and 11, with 594 likely voters in Arizona. The Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University conducted the survey for the Arizona Indian Gaming Association, a non-partisan, non-profit organization. Results are accurate within a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level.
UNCERTAINTY OVER PROPOSITION 200
If passed, Proposition 200 would deny state services to people who are not legal residents of the United States and would require public employees to report undocumented immigrants trying to receive public benefits. Proposition 200 would also require people registering to vote to prove they are U.S. citizens and to provide identification when voting.
More than half of likely voters (56%) say they have heard 'a lot' or 'some' about Proposition 200. Forty-three percent of likely voters have heard 'a little' or 'nothing' about the Proposition.
When asked if they will vote for or against this proposition, 42 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Proposition 200 and 29 percent say they will vote against it. Another 29 percent of likely voters remain undecided on the issue. One-quarter of people who say they will vote for Proposition 200 (26%) say they might change their mind before voting. Similarly, one-quarter of people who oppose Proposition 200 (25%) say they might change their mind before voting.
Fred Solop, study director, commented, "Generally speaking, instability of this magnitude is unusual three weeks before an election. Yet, this instability has been evident for some time. Polling since July 2004 has documented a trend of declining support for Proposition 200 and increasing numbers of undecided voters. Public persuasion is the key to the future of this Proposition. The side more skillful at disseminating their message in these final weeks of the campaign will win."
APPEALS BY BOTH SIDES RESONATE WITH VOTING PUBLIC
Supporters and opponents of Proposition 200 have been advancing a variety of arguments as they appeal for votes in their respective campaigns. Because the voting public is unsettled as to how they will actually vote on this issue, each appeal resonates with a significant proportion of voters. The issue will be decided by the group best able to communicate their message to the greatest number of voters.
Supporters of Proposition 200 say that voter fraud is a major problem in Arizona and that Proposition 200 will prevent illegal immigrants from voting by requiring voters to present photo identification. This message resonates with 50 percent of voters who say that knowing this makes them more likely to vote for Proposition 200. Supporters also say that Arizona taxpayers have been forced to pay for expensive government benefits given to illegal aliens. This message resonates with 45 percent of voters.
Opponents of Proposition 200 say that state agency directors in Arizona estimate that Arizona taxpayers may have to pay tens of millions of dollars to administer Proposition 200 if it is approved. This message resonates with slightly more than one-third of voters (36%) who say that knowing this makes them less likely to support Proposition 200. Opponents also say that Proposition 200 could affect public health and safety by not allowing undocumented workers and their children to be immunized. This message appeals to 29 percent of likely voters. Finally, opponents say the proposition would force state and local governments to enforce immigration laws that are the responsibility of the federal government. This message resonates with 20 percent of voters who say that knowing this makes them less likely to vote for Proposition 200.
THE INFLUENCE OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Voter opinions on Proposition 200 are related to which presidential candidate they support. Voters backing George W. Bush support Proposition 200, 52 percent to 20 percent. Voters supporting Sen. John Kerry oppose the Proposition, 44 percent to 33 percent. Proposition 200's fate may be determined by which candidate is better able to get his voters to the polls in Arizona.
Given the instability over the future of issue, the final outcome of the Proposition may very well depend on outcomes in the presidential election. Social Research Laboratory polling shows that George W. Bush is ahead of John Kerry in Arizona by 5 percentage points. Both candidates are working hard in Arizona to encourage their supporters to vote.
|